A bumpy path to an ice-free Arctic

Both PhysOrg and Andrew Revkin of the New York Times “Dot Earth” blog are covering the National Center for Atmospheric Research press release ‘Arctic ice melt could pause for several years, then resume again‘.

The research “found that Arctic ice under current climate conditions is as likely to expand as it is to contract for periods of up to about a decade.”

Revkin points out that he had written previously about this as part of the Times’ “Big Melt” series in 2005, saying:

“The same Arctic feedbacks that are amplifying human-induced climate changes are amplifying natural variability,” explained Asgeir Sorteberg, a climate modeler at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen, Norway.

Indeed, experts say, there could easily be periods in the next few decades when the region cools and ice grows.